# Vintage curves from the loan tapes · 2026-09-06

907,334 loans across 14 lenders, counted into cells of lender x credit band x origination quarter. Ever 60+ = share of a cohort's loans that had been 60+ days past due at least once by month m on book; the denominator is loans observed to at least month m. Only loans first observed within 3 months of origination enter (a loan that joins a tape later has an unobservable early history). Bands by origination score: deep-subprime 300-540; subprime 541-600; near-prime 601-660; prime 661-780; super-prime 781-900; no-score no score.

## Ever 60+ at month 12 and month 24 on book, all bands and vintages pooled

| Lender | Tier | Loans | Trusts | Ever 60+ at MOB 12 | at risk | Ever 60+ at MOB 24 | at risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ally | prime | 32,095 | 4 | 0.7% | 28,413 | 2.3% | 19,729 |
| Bridgecrest | subprime | 29,519 | 1 | 16.7% | 29,519 | – | – |
| CarMax | prime | 151,902 | 5 | 2.2% | 150,473 | 5.9% | 122,526 |
| Carvana | prime | 88,995 | 4 | 1.4% | 88,995 | 4.1% | 64,583 |
| Exeter | subprime | 200,811 | 5 | 16.7% | 185,564 | 33.0% | 129,517 |
| Ford | prime | 25,083 | 2 | 0.4% | 16,580 | 0.8% | 8,186 |
| GM Financial | prime | 9,423 | 3 | 0.3% | 8,219 | 0.9% | 6,697 |
| GM Financial (AmeriCredit) | subprime | 55,042 | 4 | 5.9% | 48,295 | 13.0% | 38,152 |
| Honda | prime | 7,985 | 2 | 0.3% | 7,070 | 0.6% | 1,976 |
| Hyundai | prime | 10,496 | 2 | 0.4% | 10,496 | 1.3% | 10,465 |
| Nissan | prime | 147 | 1 | – | – | – | – |
| Santander | subprime | 261,439 | 5 | 13.4% | 210,986 | 30.3% | 123,884 |
| Volkswagen | prime | 78 | 1 | – | – | – | – |
| World Omni | prime | 34,319 | 4 | 1.5% | 34,319 | 4.3% | 23,037 |

## By origination year, all lenders and bands

| Vintage | Loans | Ever 60+ at MOB 6 | at MOB 12 | at MOB 18 | at MOB 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 151,086 | 2.0% | 7.3% | 12.5% | 17.1% |
| 2021 | 202,456 | 2.7% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 16.9% |
| 2022 | 106,321 | 2.8% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 15.6% |
| 2023 | 183,730 | 3.4% | 10.5% | 16.2% | 21.3% |
| 2024 | 226,446 | 2.9% | 10.3% | 16.6% | 10.1% |
| 2025 | 37,295 | 0.5% | 1.8% | 4.8% | – |

Ask for one curve: https://getbookiq.com/curves?lender=Exeter&band=subprime&vintage=2024 (vintage may be a year or a quarter like 2024Q1; band one of deep-subprime, subprime, near-prime, prime, super-prime, no-score; metric=ext for ever-extended). Lenders: Ally, Bridgecrest, CarMax, Carvana, Exeter, Ford, GM Financial, GM Financial (AmeriCredit), Honda, Hyundai, Nissan, Santander, Volkswagen, World Omni.

Caveat: loans that paid off or charged off before a pool's cutoff never appear on any tape, and a tape ends at the clean-up call. The curves describe securitized collateral, not each lender's whole book.

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Rendered 2026-09-10 from the desks' own data files. Full guide: https://getbookiq.com/guide