# Vintage curves from the loan tapes · 2026-10-10

907,334 loans across 14 lenders, counted into cells of lender x credit band x origination quarter. Ever 60+ = share of a cohort's loans that had been 60+ days past due at least once by month m on book; the denominator is loans observed to at least month m. Only loans first observed within 3 months of origination enter (a loan that joins a tape later has an unobservable early history). Bands by origination score: deep-subprime 300-540; subprime 541-600; near-prime 601-660; prime 661-780; super-prime 781-900; no-score no score.

## Ever 60+ at month 12 and month 24 on book, all bands and vintages pooled

| Lender | Tier | Loans | Trusts | Ever 60+ at MOB 12 | at risk | Ever 60+ at MOB 24 | at risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ally | prime | 32,095 | 4 | 0.7% | 28,413 | 2.6% | 19,788 |
| Bridgecrest | subprime | 29,519 | 1 | 16.7% | 29,519 | 100.0% | 8,881 |
| CarMax | prime | 151,902 | 5 | 2.2% | 150,475 | 6.3% | 123,004 |
| Carvana | prime | 88,995 | 4 | 1.4% | 88,995 | 5.2% | 65,355 |
| Exeter | subprime | 200,811 | 5 | 16.8% | 185,742 | 40.5% | 145,642 |
| Ford | prime | 25,083 | 2 | 0.5% | 16,606 | 2.5% | 8,329 |
| GM Financial | prime | 9,423 | 3 | 0.4% | 8,223 | 1.7% | 6,751 |
| GM Financial (AmeriCredit) | subprime | 55,042 | 4 | 7.0% | 48,876 | 18.6% | 40,789 |
| Honda | prime | 7,985 | 2 | 0.3% | 7,070 | 3.3% | 2,031 |
| Hyundai | prime | 10,496 | 2 | 0.4% | 10,496 | 1.3% | 10,466 |
| Nissan | prime | 147 | 1 | – | – | – | – |
| Santander | subprime | 261,439 | 5 | 14.8% | 214,395 | 40.7% | 145,412 |
| Volkswagen | prime | 78 | 1 | – | – | – | – |
| World Omni | prime | 34,319 | 4 | 1.5% | 34,319 | 5.5% | 23,310 |

## By origination year, all lenders and bands

| Vintage | Loans | Ever 60+ at MOB 6 | at MOB 12 | at MOB 18 | at MOB 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 151,086 | 2.1% | 7.7% | 13.3% | 18.7% |
| 2021 | 202,456 | 2.8% | 9.0% | 13.7% | 18.1% |
| 2022 | 106,321 | 2.8% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 16.5% |
| 2023 | 183,730 | 3.7% | 11.4% | 17.7% | 23.9% |
| 2024 | 226,446 | 3.0% | 10.8% | 17.7% | 66.9% |
| 2025 | 37,295 | 0.5% | 1.8% | 7.5% | 100.0% |

Ask for one curve: https://getbookiq.com/curves?lender=Exeter&band=subprime&vintage=2024 (vintage may be a year or a quarter like 2024Q1; band one of deep-subprime, subprime, near-prime, prime, super-prime, no-score; metric=ext for ever-extended). Lenders: Ally, Bridgecrest, CarMax, Carvana, Exeter, Ford, GM Financial, GM Financial (AmeriCredit), Honda, Hyundai, Nissan, Santander, Volkswagen, World Omni.

Caveat: loans that paid off or charged off before a pool's cutoff never appear on any tape, and a tape ends at the clean-up call. The curves describe securitized collateral, not each lender's whole book.

---
Rendered 2026-10-25 from the desks' own data files. Full guide: https://getbookiq.com/guide