# The credit union system at 2026-03

Vehicle share of the loan book and dealer-sourced share invert with size: the small end writes car loans, the large end buys them. Median staffing is the capacity ceiling.

| Band | Credit unions | Assets $B | Vehicles % of loans | Indirect % of vehicle | Median FTE | Median delinquency | Median score | Score 5+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <$50M | 1,931 | 33.9 | 52.7% | 5.7% | 3 | 0.66% | 3 | 21.4% |
| $50-100M | 577 | 41.8 | 42.7% | 19.2% | 13 | 0.63% | 2 | 10.2% |
| $100-200M | 547 | 78.5 | 37.3% | 35.6% | 27 | 0.62% | 2 | 9.0% |
| $200-500M | 523 | 169.4 | 34.2% | 52.5% | 60 | 0.60% | 2 | 5.9% |
| $500M-1B | 284 | 204.8 | 30.2% | 61.4% | 123 | 0.59% | 2 | 10.2% |
| $1-10B | 450 | 1303.6 | 28.1% | 83.3% | 308 | 0.62% | 2 | 9.6% |
| >$10B | 24 | 675.7 | 22.4% | 62.6% | 2243 | 0.91% | 2 | 4.2% |

## Validation: departure within four quarters, by composite score

Base rate 4.33%; 1,749 departures on our watch. Departure means stopped filing, mostly voluntary mergers. The claim is lift, not that every flagged institution is dying.

| Score | Institution-quarters | Departed | Rate | Lift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 62,628 | 1,139 | 1.82% | 0.4x |
| 2 | 45,544 | 1,249 | 2.74% | 0.6x |
| 3-4 | 58,564 | 2,536 | 4.33% | 1.0x |
| 5-6 | 20,358 | 1,852 | 9.10% | 2.1x |
| 7+ | 7,136 | 1,639 | 22.97% | 5.3x |

## The deterioration signature: median path into departure

| Quarters to departure | Net worth % | ROA % | Delinquency % | Members YoY % | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t-7 | 11.24 | 0.14 | 0.65 | -1.99 | 3 |
| t-6 | 11.25 | 0.11 | 0.68 | -2.04 | 3 |
| t-5 | 11.17 | 0.1 | 0.74 | -2.19 | 3 |
| t-4 | 11.21 | 0.09 | 0.73 | -2.17 | 3 |
| t-3 | 11.19 | 0.06 | 0.7 | -2.36 | 4 |
| t-2 | 11.1 | 0.04 | 0.74 | -2.79 | 4 |
| t-1 | 10.95 | 0 | 0.72 | -3.27 | 4 |
| t-0 | 10.67 | -0.44 | 0.66 | -4.63 | 5 |
| survivors (pooled) | 11.44 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0 | 2 |

## Score distribution, latest quarter

| Score | Credit unions |
|---|---|
| 0 | 430 |
| 1 | 939 |
| 2 | 1057 |
| 3 | 750 |
| 4 | 535 |
| 5 | 293 |
| 6 | 133 |
| 7 | 105 |
| 8 | 52 |
| 9 | 25 |
| 10 | 8 |
| 11 | 6 |
| 13 | 1 |
| 14 | 1 |
| 15 | 1 |

Conventions: NCUA 5300 bulk files resolved per cycle through the account dictionary; ratios use period-end balances and YTD annualization (Q1 x4, Q2 x2, Q3 x4/3). Screening-grade, not examiner-identical. A flag is a question to ask management, not an accusation.

Page: https://getbookiq.com/cu-intel/ (System tab) · how every measure is read: https://getbookiq.com/text/cu-intel/meaning.md · flags: cap_low = thin capital; cap_critical = capital below 7%; cap_falling = net worth falling; earn_negative = losing money; earn_opex = expense trap; earn_nim_squeeze = margin squeeze; aq_dq_high = delinquency 2x band; aq_dq_rising = delinquency rising; aq_nco_high = charge-offs p90; aq_repo = repo signal; shrink_assets = assets shrinking; shrink_members = members leaving; shrink_loans = loan book shrinking; str_ltos = loans>95% of shares; str_borrowings = leaning on borrowings; str_thirdparty = 3rd-party paper>100% NW; str_vehicle = auto monoline

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Rendered 2026-09-10 from the desks' own data files. Full guide: https://getbookiq.com/guide